Mobile continues to compound, and underlying local ad growth, particularly in Legal Services vertical offsets the end of the election cycle in 2027.
CHANTILLY, Va. (September 14, 2026) – BIA Advisory Services has updated its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, projecting total local ad revenue to reach $186.1 billion, up $1.6 billion (+0.9%) from the firm’s April 2026 estimate of $184.5 billion and approximately 9% year over year from 2025. The increase is driven primarily by higher political ad spending heading into the midterms, along with continued strength in mobile.
Excluding political advertising, the 2026 forecast is now $176.4 billion, up $0.3 billion (+0.2%) from the prior estimate of $176.1 billion and 3.9% over 2025, reflecting steady, broad-based growth across the underlying local ad market.
“Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV OTA and TV OTT,” said Senan Mele, VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “Legal Services was also notable in this update, reaching $9.3 billion, up 4.6% from the prior forecast. Despite higher media costs and a more fragmented media environment, law firms continue to invest heavily in television, both linear and streaming, where the ability to reach large audiences and generate qualified leads continues to drive demand.”
BIA now projects $9.7 billion in 2026 for local political spending, up from $8.4 billion in the April forecast, which is an increase of $1.3 billion concentrated almost entirely in video. TV OTA and TV OTT together captured $1.2 billion of that increase, reinforcing broadcast and streaming video’s role as a preferred vehicle for political campaigns.
Mobile Keeps Compounding, and AI Reshapes Search
Mobile remains the largest local media category tracked by BIA, projected to grow to $45.3 billion in 2026 (excluding political), an 8.9% year-over-year increase. This growth comes as competition intensifies in A.I.-fueled search advertising, a category that local advertisers have traditionally relied on to reach consumers across mobile devices.
“Google, OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are all positioning themselves to capture a larger share of advertising tied to AI-powered search,” said Mike Boland, Executive in Residence, BIA Advisory Services. “Google’s Gemini is increasingly becoming an extension of its advertising business, while OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are developing their own approaches to monetize search and discovery. For local advertisers, the bigger question is where consumer intent will emerge and which platforms will capture it. Mobile will be a critical battleground as that shift unfolds.”
Growth Categories Heading Into 2027
BIA’s first look at 2027 projects total local ad revenue of $186.5 billion, essentially flat versus 2026. About $9 billion in underlying, nonpolitical growth is expected to nearly offset an $8.6 billion decline in political spending as the election cycle ends. Political spending is projected to fall to approximately $1.1 billion in the 2027 off-cycle year.
Mele said, “Political spending will decline sharply after the midterms, but the underlying nonpolitical market has continued to grow and should offset much of that decline. We expect the overall local advertising market to remain essentially flat in 2027, with continued growth across core categories helping to support the market in an off-cycle year.”
Beneath that stable topline, several categories are projected to grow well above the market average. Real estate leads at +9.8%, followed by leisure and recreation (+5.9%), automotive (+5.1%), restaurants and food (+4.4%), and financial services (+3.7%).
“2027 makes clear that the underlying growth in local advertising is broader and more durable than the political cycle alone would suggest,” said Rick Ducey, Managing Director, BIA Advisory Services. “Political spending has accelerated the market and delivered a strong two-year period for broadcast and streaming video, but the more important story is what happens beneath that surge. Core categories continue to expand their investments across an increasingly diverse media ecosystem. That sustained, multi-platform demand, and the media channels that capture it, will shape the next phase of local media.”
Where to Access the U.S. Local Advertising Forecast
Clients can log in to BIA ADVantage™ and access the updated forecast, which extends through 2030 across 18 media channels and 96 verticals within 12 business categories for all local TV and radio markets. The data, insights, and visualizations provide in-depth analysis of local spending trends. Learn more about ADVantage or contact advantage@bia.com to request a demonstration.
If your company would like to request a forecast briefing, reach out to us at advantage@bia.com for details.
About BIA Advisory Services
BIA Advisory Services is a media consultancy specializing in local advertising forecasting, market data and valuation services. The firm provides research, analysis, and strategic advisory support to media owners, advertisers, and investors across traditional and digital media. BIA’s work focuses on helping clients assess market conditions, evaluate opportunities, and support sales and decision-making in a changing media environment. Details on forecasts, products, services and insights are available at bia.com.
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