Local advertising is in better shape than many media execs expected. That’s just one takeaway from BIA’s latest forecast update, which its analysts (Rick Ducey, MIke Guerity, Senan Mele, and myself) recently gathered to break it all down (video embedded below).
Meanwhile, what were the biggest takeaways? Across U.S. markets, local ad spend trends upward, but it varies by vertical and channel, so planning needs to happen at the market level, not from national headlines. One notable factor is the mismatch between consumer sentiment and their actual spending behavior. Surveys may read negative, yet spending remains resilient, and advertising often follows revenue.
Add to all that market volatility, shifting policies, and uncertainty around tariffs, and the practical takeaway becomes clear: build plans that can flex, track and keep a close eye on local business demand that drives high-margin core advertising packages.
All Politics is Local
Political advertising is the headline factor, especially in a midterm cycle that could match or even exceed the political ad spend of a recent presidential election,a rare and meaningful shift for broadcast TV and streaming. The bigger planning challenge is what happens next. Political dollars could roll off hard in 2027, so budgeting as if that surge is permanent will create a false sense of security. So, watch out for that.
The forecast logic is that core local business advertising continues to grow enough to replace much of the political decline, leaving total 2027 markets slightly higher than 2026, even after the political drop. That only happens if non-political categories keep expanding. Media leaders who separate “political season operations” from “everyday demand generation” put themselves in a stronger position to manage inventory, staffing, and sales expectations when the cycle turns.
Specifically, analysts point to growth categories to prioritize when political fades: real estate, healthcare, financial services, education, plus steady restaurant and retail, and often-overlooked home services. Travel is also trending up, while real estate is the forecast’s fastest-growing vertical. Many of these vertical buyers are deskless and live on mobile, so demand expands into CRM, lead response, and agentic AI tools that book appointments and recover missed calls. The deeper point is operational: you’re not only selling ads, you’re selling time back.
The episode also tackles the old “traditional vs digital” framing and explains why it no longer fits. Streaming and connected TV are no longer just audience extension; viewership can rival or outperform linear in key segments, and advertisers still want the reach that TV delivers, especially when over-targeting risks missing in-market buyers.
Break Down Silos
The data points to CTV and OTT as the fastest-growing channel through 2030 for core local business, but it sits between TV and digital, which can cause internal handoff failures. When TV teams and digital teams operate in silos, money falls through the cracks. Winning organizations coordinate packaging, share advertiser insight, and sell cross-platform campaigns with clear performance marketing goals, attribution, and outcomes instead of just impressions.
As political spending recedes in 2027, coordinated TV, streaming, and digital packages can help media companies win back local advertisers and capture more of their business.
Lean into the FOMO
AI is reshaping search, social and mobile, creating confusion for local businesses and an opening for consultative selling. The best reps become educators, translating fragmentation into a simple plan that eases advertisers’ concerns.
As we discuss on the podcast, local media companies don’t need to build every platform themselves. Their advantage is trusted local brands, local audiences and the ability to bring mobile, social, search and video together. Sellers can compete with self-serve platforms by focusing on local reach, video and results, not price alone.
Who Doesn’t want to be on TV?
Meanwhile, video is highlighted as a key unlock because generative AI is lowering production costs, while streaming supply lowers distribution costs, making premium video advertising accessible to smaller budgets. This brings a long-coveted format to local businesses, tapping into their entrepreneurial vanity, among other things. Who doesn’t want to be on TV?
For more color, watch or listen to the full episode. BIA ADVantage clients can log into the platform to download the full forecast deck and also look at the updated forecast for their local markets. We also offer the forecast deck for purchase on our shop cart.
