BIA’s Forecast Highlights a Two-Speed Market and Key Growth Verticals While Introducing DOOH Ad Forecast Estimates to the Media Mix
CHANTILLY, Va. (April 9, 2026) – BIA Advisory Services has revised its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast (released in Q4 2025), projecting total local ad revenue to reach $184.5 billion, reflecting approximately 8.1% year-over-year growth compared with 2025. The increase over the prior estimate of $181.7 billion is driven by stronger-than-expected performance in mobile (particularly social), video, and streaming, political ad spend, and advertising technology.
Excluding political advertising, the 2026 forecast is now $176.1 billion, up from the previous $172.7 billion.
“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,” said Senan Mele, VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”
Political advertising will drive key spending this year. BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political spending, creating substantial revenue opportunities across broadcast television, linear cable, CTV/OTT, radio, and direct mail.
BIA’s forecast also points to two growth factors driving the local advertising economy: near-term revenue from political spending and long-term growth fueled by key verticals, including real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services. Total local advertising is projected to exceed $222 billion by 2030, according to BIA’s forecast.
“The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy,” said Rick Ducey, Managing Director, BIA Advisory Services. “Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”
The forecast update also underscores the ongoing transformation of the media mix. Growth is being driven by digital channels – particularly mobile, social, and connected TV – while traditional media continues to play a critical role in delivering reach and brand impact.
As part of this forecast update, BIA has enhanced its methodology to better reflect changes in the marketplace, including adding Digital Out of Home (DOOH) as a distinct media category within the forecast, rather than grouping it with traditional Out of Home (OOH). This change highlights the increasing importance of digital, programmatic, and location-based media in local campaigns.
While some legacy formats, including print, continue to face long-term declines, others are evolving. Across the market, advertisers are increasingly adopting full-funnel strategies, combining high-reach media such as cable, broadcast, and OOH with data-driven digital channels to drive both awareness and measurable outcomes. Radio also remains a stable local medium, with additional opportunities emerging through digital audio, including streaming and podcasts.
“Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming. The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals,” added Mele.
Where to Access the U.S. Local Advertising Forecast
Clients can log in to BIA ADVantage™ to access the updated forecast, extended through 2030 and now including DOOH across national and local markets. ADVantage provides expanded forecast data now across 18 media channels and 96 verticals for all local TV and radio markets. The data along with insights and visualizations deliver in-depth analysis of local spending trends. Learn more about ADVantage here or contact advantage@bia.comto get a demonstration of our advertising forecast.
In addition to the ADVantage platform, a presentation version of the nationwide forecast is also available for purchase in BIA’s shop here.
About BIA Advisory Services
BIA Advisory Services is a media consultancy specializing in local advertising forecasting, market data, and valuation services. The firm provides research, analysis, and strategic advisory support to media owners, advertisers, and investors across traditional and digital media. BIA’s work focuses on helping clients assess market conditions, evaluate opportunities, and support sales and decision-making in a changing media environment. Details on forecasts, products, services, and insights are available at http://bia.com.
