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CHANTILLY, Va. (June 2, 2015) – BIA/Kelsey estimates companies providing on-demand household and transportation services will generate $18.5 billion in revenues in 2015, representing 3.9 percent of the total addressable potential market for on-demand services. Much of that revenue is captured in transportation, particularly by Uber, which is expected to book more than $10 billion in ride revenue in 2015 (inclusive of drivers’ share).
“We examined how big the local on-demand economy can become if it enables 1099 labor to exchange work in one category for services in another,” said BIA/Kelsey NOW Conference Chair Mitch Ratcliffe, senior analyst, digital media strategist, BIA/Kelsey. “With a baseline for on-demand labor market penetration, the industry can consider its potential and understand the economic factors that will shape it.”
BIA/Kelsey estimates that in 2015, the total addressable market – people who can conveniently access and afford to pay for in-home on-demand services, including shopping time, travel and child/elder care – is 22.8 billion hours of currently unpaid household work. If fully engaged at $17 per hour (the average hourly rate for 1099 work according to multiple sources), the total addressable potential market for on-demand services in 2015 could be worth approximately $465 billion. Of this amount, the revenue share for on-demand companies approaches $93 billion (based on the current industry standard 20 percent share for on-demand marketplace operators who connect customers and contractors).
BIA/Kelsey expects the local on-demand economy (LODE) to grow at a compound annual rate of 13.5 percent through 2030, based on projected population growth and an increase in average on-demand earnings of 2.33 percent per year over that time, from $17 per hour to $24 per hour.
A detailed analysis of BIA/Kelsey’s LODE market sizing has been published on the firm’s Local Media Watch blog. “LODE in 2015: Household Services and Travel Market Penetration” is the first in a series of in-depth posts examining the size of the LODE opportunity. Further details, including estimated revenue available from existing home-service companies, will be included in future blog postings and BIA/Kelsey’s new Local On-Demand Economy Insight Paper series.
BIA/Kelsey analysts will present the firm’s LODE outlook at BIA/Kelsey NOW, June 12, in San Francisco. The one-day event examines the rise of the local on-demand economy and its implications for brands, service providers, local media and local workforces. The event features more than 30 on-demand experts and investors, including keynote speakers Ethan Anderson, CEO of MyTime, and Joanna Lord, VP, Marketing for Porch.
Sponsors and partners for BIA/Kelsey NOW include: AccelOne, Century Interactive, Flint, International Classifieds Media Association (ICMA), The On-Demand Economy and SEMPO. Complete conference information, including the agenda, speakers list, venue, sponsorships and online registration is available at https://www.bia.com/NOW.
BIA/Kelsey advises companies in the local media space through consulting and valuation services, research and forecasts, Custom Advisory Services and conferences. Since 1983 BIA/Kelsey has been a resource to the media, mobile advertising, telecommunications, Yellow Pages and electronic directory markets, as well as to government agencies, law firms and investment companies looking to understand trends and revenue drivers. BIA/Kelsey’s annual conferences draw executives from across industries seeking expert guidance on how companies are finding innovative ways to grow. Additional information is available at https://www.bia.com, on the company’s Local Media Watch blog, Twitter (http://twitter.com/BIAKelsey) and Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/biakelsey). Stay connected by subscribing to the firm’s bi-monthly newsletter.