Strengthened by Political Season, BIA Projects $175.6 Billion in 2024 Local Advertising Marketplace Spending
Impact of Global Economy Expected to Keep Most Business Categories Down; Without political the increase…
BIA’s television forecast also indicates retransmission consent fees will add another $8.44B
CHANTILLY, Va. (April 30, 2018) – BIA Advisory Services’ U.S. local advertising forecast indicates it will be a solid year for the television industry, with local television station revenue reaching $27.70 billion, up from $26.2B in 2017. The breakdown of ad revenue includes $18.2B for over-the-air revenue, up 5.8 percent from 2017 and $1.1B for digital revenue, a modest increase of 6.3 percent since last year. Additionally, retransmission consent agreements between local television stations and cable/satellite companies will contribute $8.44B to the total industry revenue this year.
“We anticipate political advertising will generate significant ad revenue for local television this year, in particular for over-the-air revenue,” said Mark Fratrik, SVP and chief economist at BIA Advisory Services. “Of all media, television still dominates in political years, even as campaigns integrate more digital advertising into their overall strategy.”
To offset generally flat OTA revenue, television is expanding its multiplatform advertising offers to deliver content effectively in today’s multi-touch point content ecosystem. In particular, television is increasing its share of location-mobile advertising. The firm estimates that location-targeted mobile ad spend will be $22.1B in 2018, which includes $3.1B of additional mobile advertising sold by traditional media players, including television broadcasters and other traditional media.
“Mobile advertising is a smart play for television because it offers a unique opportunity to leverage existing assets such as news and weather through sponsored mobile websites and applications,” commented Fratrik. “These types of efforts are important as over-the-top – or OTT – services continue to attract viewers.”
As indicated in the forecast, retransmission fees have become significant to local stations. Gross retransmission consent revenue increased to more than $8 billion in 2017 and is expected to grow to $8.440 billion in 2018. BIA predicts that on a market-by-market basis, retransmission fees will continue to rise over the next five years, based on specific household growth rates, as well as expectations on price increases and consumer behavior.
Speaking to the forecast, Fratrik added, “This year will be particularly interesting to watch in terms of political and digital. Local television is at a juncture where strategic decisions will be key to their success. To ensure we are delivering reliable data and insights, our forecast this year includes the largest number of revenue reporting stations we’ve ever had. Plus, we’ve added a new data scientist to our team to process the forecast against enhanced criteria and methodology.”
Purchasing the Forecast
The new television forecast, including new retransmission consent data, along with a comprehensive profile of all 210 television markets (plus Puerto Rico) is available in the first-quarter edition of Investing In Television® Market Report and in its software database, Media Access Pro™, which delivers comprehensive information on the radio, television and newspaper industries.
About BIA Advisory Services
BIA Advisory Services is the leading authority for data-centered research, analysis, strategic consulting and valuation services for the local media industry. Since 1983, BIA has been a valuable resource for traditional and digital media companies, brands and agencies, the financial and legal community serving media and telecom, as well as the FCC and other government agencies. Today, we offer comprehensive local market advertising intelligence in our BIA ADVantage data platform combined with analyst insights, actionable strategies and business financial assessments to help clients discover their best opportunities. Learn more about our offerings and our regional event series, LOCAL IMPACT, at our website http://www.bia.com.