Monday, January 30,
2006
Mobile TV — iPod or Mobile Phone,
Where's the Scale Advantage?
By Christopher Versace, Senior Telecom Analyst
Introduction
We are in the midst of a significant shift in how people may choose to consume television in the coming months and years. At stake are the "where" and "with what" aspects as the anytime, anywhere attitude creates a new on-demand, portable consumption environment. Two of the leading technology platforms driving these advances are Apple's video iPod and wireless telephone providers that feature new video capable networks and handsets. However, technology penetration will not exist without two key components: content and consumer acceptance. So, how far will it all go and who will be the winner?
Recent headlines tout the content deals inked by Apple Computer which empower consumers to download on demand video programming via iTunes to their video iPod. Equally important announcements are coming from a number of wireless operators regarding their own Mobile TV initiatives. Motorola's initial ROKR product shows that even Apple acknowledges the three things that people take with them wherever they go — keys, wallet and their mobile phone (at least until all of those functions are built into a mobile device).
While we view iPod video as exciting, given the sheer scale of global mobile phone subscriptions (more than 2 billion by year end 2005 compared to 40-45 million expected cumulatively for iPod volumes) and continued growth in mobile phone subscriber base (3 billion subscribers in 2008), we think Apple's recent efforts and the mobile video market today will pale in comparison to the eventual growth of video over mobile phones in the long term.
Our belief is that the Apple iPod is only the tip of the portable video iceburg. To fully understand where this market segment is going, it is critical to be aware of the technology drivers, the content deals, the consumer reaction and the scale economies of technology infrastructures.
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Contents include:
- Apple's TV content deals
- The Challenge of iPod's battery life
- Mobile phone market offers of scale and real time TV
- Rich consumer experience at affordable price points proving a necessity
- Competing Technologies
- DVB-H on the way
- MediaFLO
- Mobile TV enabled handsets
- Free mobile TV?
- The Apple or the mobile phone?
This paper was written by Christopher Versace, Senior Telecom Analyst. |
